Policy By Other Means - Cold War II

 Clausewitz said that Policy by other means is [essentially] war. This is what Putin's Russia  is doing. It is a careful and long game. He set the ground work in 2007 with the Russkiy Mir foundation, followed by the annexation of Ukrainian Land in 2014. Putin's version of  Hitler's Mein Kampf  was published in 2020, and he launged a full scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. 

Russia uses its skilled information operators to carefully craft different messages to the internal Russians, Russians outside Russia, his allies and his enemies before he takes the next step in his plan. The west has done a poor job of listening up to now. If we listen carefully to what he tells us, we can prepare for his next move in this Global Cold War II and prevent a very possible World War III.

Though the 2022 Invasion's initial failure was a setback, He has never altered the plan, and is preparing the Russian people for a general mobilization to war after his reelection in March of 2024. 

Before we get to how we got here, lets talk about what comes next:

If we listen carefully Putin's acts, words to different groups, and his deceptions, we see he has drawn up sides for the coming conflict, and tell us what his next moves will be:

• He has set up the BRICS economic alliance as an alternative to the EU, and in anticipation of being left out of other world economic groups when he expands his war
• He has established  and is expanding a military industrial complex outside the reach of sanctions with his allies in North Korea, China, Iran, Lebanon, Syria, and possibly Nicaragua to support a long drawn out war
• He is establishing diplomatic and military support connections in Africa and South East Asia
• He has Used Hybrid warfare in Ukraine, and Information operations to his various audiences as following 4 myths:
• External  West: - the West cannot exist as it it as without Russia. Russia is the Yin to the West's Yang-all wars end in diplomatic solutions-Russia is relentless and will attack Ukraine until Ukraine stops fighting. (Myth 1)
• Internal Muscovy: You have a right to all Land with a Russian Speaker in it- Russian Culture is superior and will always prevail. People who are not Russians will be taught to act Russian because the culture is superior (Myth 2)
• "Traditional Russian conquered Lands" Russia is too strong to resist, allying with us earns you special treatment- If we you require us to conquer you we will do so, and then make it so your children do not even remember the name of the land before Russians conquered. (Myth 3)
• The US and Traditional Enemies : Russia needs you to exist so we we will always have a war to fight. We will continue to exploit your cultural weakness and divisions by information operations, since it has worked so well, so that you lose your resolve to oppose us until its too late (Myth 4)

How did it get to this?

The First Cold war ended when the Soviet Union Collapsed in 1990. In this vacuum, countries realigned, both Islamist and Iran backed Jihadist groups rose into what has been called the the "Long war". During this period from 1990 - 2000, a Former middle ranked KGB Agent rose up and wrote his version of  "Mein Kampf"(Hiller) called The World Order: a Game without Rules (Putin). He developed a concept called  "Russkiy Mir". In it, he he describes Russia and its role in the world, where Putin must expand Russian culture throughout the world, and then lay claim to every human who speaks Russian anywhere in the world. Putin and  Russia are setting the table to expand this conflict based on the assumptions from this Doctrine -He even  now uses the Russia Orthodox church as an instrument of Russkiy Mir..

What do we do now?

1. Recognize that this a long term deliberate plan, and that any Russian Claim to victimhood is a deception [Shows they are i a time of weakness and need a paus]
2. Recognize that Putin and Muscovey Russians do not feel any obligation to keep any commitment they make to any group, at any time, including their own people if it supports the expansion of Russkiy Mir. [Any negotiation is a temporary war tactic]
3. Acknowledge that Russia has already extracted the next generation of their armies from occupied Ukraine as children and has spread them across their 10 time zones to be taught to act like Russians (even though they can never be) be relentless in getting our children back
4. Oppose Russkiy Mir in all its forms - like their recent attempt to set up a Russian cultural center in Italy (Tag it, call it out, stalk it.)
5. Prepare our industrial base for a generation of Cold War II or invest in the destruction of Russia's ability to make war. Redesign war, develop the right organization
6. Fund Ukraine's War efforts now, as  a generation of Russians continue to impale themselves on Ukraine as demonstration of their manhood. Prepare our militaries for the next war, both technologically and tactically..

It does not matter that we do not want to go to or be at war. Putin's Russia decided 20 years ago that Russia is at war with us. Muscovey is already emotionally prepared to be at war. The West is not.